Super Tuesday and Beyond
Super Tuesday
My last post got Romney’s number of Super Tuesday states right – 7 out of the 11, and was only wrong with N. Dakota. But he did get the one that I didn’t call – Ohio. And Ohio was a cliffhanger – not called until after 9:30pm Pacific Time. He’d also won Washington state over the weekend – his 5th in a row. Here are the full results.
About 6:40 PST (9:40 EST) Ann Romney gave a long introduction of Mitt in Boston, thanking many specific people in the various states. Mitt said in his victory speech that “for those who only see jobs they can’t have, you haven’t failed – your president has failed you, and needs to go. ...8% unemployment is not the best this country can do, but only the best this president can do. ...Real change is finally on the way. But our campaign is about more than replacing a president – it’s about restoring the promise of America. ....There are hard, long days of work ahead – tomorrow we wake up and start again. But Nov. 6 we’ll stand united to restore America....God bless this great land.”
Apparently this was enough for Dennis Prager, who’s been torn up to now, but came on the air the next day in a cheery mood, saying he now feels good about Romney based on what he heard in the Massachussetts speech – that he spoke about more than just jobs, but the deficit & strength of America. I think Romney’s been saying that before, so Dennis must have just missed it – easy to do w. the selective/spotty media coverage & debate sound bites. Probably reflective also of the general electorate, for whom it will take repetition & time for it to sink in, and feel comfortable. I respect Prager immensely, as well as Medved & Hewitt – my top 3 – all 3 of whom are now openly for Romney. I could care less about the openly anti-Mormon Gallagher, but am still disappointed in Levin. Beck & Gallagher sound like they’re making peace w. Romney, though they’d still prefer Santorum.
Massachusetts was a convincing win with 72%, and those are the people that know him best, where he lives and was governor. Much more convincing than Newt’s Georgia win. And the last time Pennsylvania spoke, they ousted Santorum convincingly. But Mitt also got at least 60% in Idaho & Virginia (true, 2 others weren’t on the ballot in VA). There were reports of some of the same strategic Democrat voting in Ohio as we saw in Michigan, so again the margin would otherwise have been larger. As expected, Santorum & Gingrich did well in the South & Evangelical country.
So here are the current cumulative committed delegate counts, out of 811 in states up to Super Tuesday (from RealClearPolitics.com). Note that there are uncommitted delegates in caucus states, until their later state conventions.
Romney 404 (50%)
Santorum 161 (20%)
Gingrich 105 (13%)
Paul 61 (8%)
The Way Forward to the Nomination -- Doing the Math
I created the following simple mathematical spreadsheet to "do the math" to see how feasible it might be for each candidate to accumulate the rest of the 1144 needed to secure the nomination by various state primary dates before the convention. This may be especially useful for those candidates who can't seem to do the math. Next to the upcoming election dates are the corresponding cumulative number of remaining (after Super Tuesday) delegates awarded up to and including that date, courtesy of TheGreenPapers.com.
To the right I show the fraction of all remaining delegates each candidate must win to reach 1144 by each date. The earliest any candidate can do it is Mitt, May 8, but he would have to win 88% of the remaining delegates – highly unlikely, seeing how he’s currently averaged 50%, and there’s no indication of others dropping out, and some Southern states coming up next. But Mitt’s the only one who can reach 1144 before the convention at his current rate – he’d barely get it on the very last primary date, July 14. If he does worse, it would be a brokered convention. If he does just a few % better, he could do it by June 5. But May 29 would be much tougher, requiring 67% -- less likely unless there are unexpected big changes – dropouts, gaffes, etc.
Santorum would have to win at least 67% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination before the convention – a rate more than 3 times his rate up to now. Gingrich would have to win at least 70% -- 6 times his current rate. And Ron Paul 73% -- 9 times his current rate. The bottom line is that it’s very possible for Romney to secure the nomination before the convention – in June or July, and highly unlikely for even Santorum without earth-shaking changes. But if Romney stumbles or lets up at all, and no one drops out, there is a real possibility of a brokered convention, which hasn’t really happened in the GOP since 1920.
A Brokered Convention?
Clearly my earlier May 8 estimate was somewhat optimistic, especially in light of the apparently strong commitments of all the other delegates to press on after Super Tuesday, all the way to the convention. One has to conclude that either they & their team can’t do the simple math I just showed (unlikely for career politicians), or they are of one mind and hell-bent on stopping Romney at all costs to force a brokered convention – their only hope. Although their voting share may diminish as the electorate & donors come to a realization of the futility – unless in large numbers they (as their candidate) pin their hopes on a brokered convention.
As tough as it will be for Romney who's considerably ahead, the others don't have a realistic chance of doing it before the convention, and the only reason they stay in is to force a brokered convention, which is not necessarily the best for the GOP or our general election chances -- especially on top of all negative fallout from this already brutal extended fight. I know Palin is actually hoping for that, and has indicated she'd be willing to be considered at that point. I doubt her electability is even as good as the other non-Romneys, and theirs in turn is unlikely as good as Romney's. By this time 4 years ago Romney had dropped out for the good of the party (& country), and campaigned actively for McCain -- a team player.
But Romney over the past year has been by far the steadiest in polls and performance, consistently coming back after temporary setbacks. And the term he chose in a debate to describe himself was “resolute.” As he said in his speech, he’s prepared to get up tomorrow and go to work. He has a proven organization and resources. And one might expect somewhat of a bandwagon effect – success breeds success. I don’t recall having disagreed w. Krauthammer, but I will here – I don’t think Romney will get weaker w. time. These surges by others come and go.
March 10 Update – a Turning Point?
With Kansas, Guam, N. Marianas Islands & Virgin Islands behind us, Romney is now at 55% of delegates, according to the NYT – moving upwards – a nice geometric progression, each candidate having twice the delegates of the next below him:
Mitt – 454
Rick – 217
Newt – 107
Ron -- 47
I think we’re at the point of turning upward, as hinted at in polls this week in Alabama & Mississippi, and a growing chorus of GOP thinkers and speakers for candidates to drop out. The next few Southern states were not expected to favor Romney, but a poll I saw the other day showed Romney even or ahead of Gingrich in Alabama & Mississippi – must-wins for Gingrich, who’s only been a regional (Southern) candidate so far. That could knock Gingrich out of the race. Ron Paul’s just a curmudgeon who’ll fight on to air the Libertarian world view. And Santorum’s idealistic but delusional.
They keep saying how weak Romney is, but he’s the only one who can realistically secure the nomination before the convention. And which of them has shown anywhere near as much strength? Oh, yes, they think their conviction, values, conservatism, intelligence and/or debating skills are so superior to Romney’s. But if all that can’t help them any more than it has in the GOP primaries, how do they think they’ll fare in the general election, where it’ll be even tougher, by their own admission?
The way I see it, Republicans were so psyched out about the disaster of 2008 after nominating a true moderate, and the disaster of Obama, that the pendulum overswung to the right. This is evident in that Romney was the conservative (CPAC) choice in 2008, but is viewed now (I still think incorrectly) as not conservative enough. But then and now were both overswings that did and could again result in disaster. Polls continue to show Romney more electable in the general election. And not only that, he’s more qualified and experienced to actually fill the office as an executive, and to tackle this elephant in the room – the economy & debt. But a fair fraction of the electorate (Mitt’s steady 30% over the last year) consistently saw that clearly, and the rest appear to slowly be coming to their senses.
John Bolton said this week that Romney’s executive experience qualifies him for the presidency. Brit Hume said regarding Newt’s complaining about Mitt having campaigned 6 years, that that’s hard work and pays off with a national organization. And Newt & Rick suffered from a lack of that – not appearing on the ballot in various places. And I’d note that Mitt’s campaigning was on behalf of fellow Republicans to win key state and Congressional positions – team player, again. And something we must not neglect as well – to give a Republican president the support of a Republican Congress, to assure change.
On March 6 Prager disagreed w. George Will, who said we ought to give up on the presidency and focus energy & resources on Congress instead. He said we shouldn’t get in a funk – Mitt’s the best chance to win – be positive. Perhaps reflective of what he says on his weekly “Happiness Hour” -- we need to act happy even if we don’t feel it.
On top of the Democrat (& Santorum) recruiting of Democrats for Santorum in open primaries, another part of the narrow margins for Romney in Michigan & Ohio, is the anti-Mormon Evangelical vote. It's obvious (especially in the South but also elsewhere) when comparing with every other category of voters that Romney dominates. I think it's unfortunate -- this is not a theological contest. Romney's values are solid, and he's well-qualified -- I'd say better-qualified -- in the important areas – especially the existential threats to the economy and related security strength. All my life I've voted gladly for people of other denominations, and didn't think twice about it, regardless of religious differences.
Axelrod tweeted a Romney attack at 1am at the end of Super Tuesday – they’re obviously most worried about him.
I noted that the media seemed to diminish Romney’s clear lead & 7-state win on Super Tuesday. ABC news talked about his “getting votes, but not love.” This would be expected of the liberal press, and liberals in general, for whom to be loved is the end-all – for a president (like Obama), as well as the US in the international arena. For them, to be loved is more important than being respected, or actual qualifications and accomplishments. Then today I saw this, tending to confirm my earlier remarks about media manipulation of the GOP primary, and certainly at least public opinion.
Is the media dragging out the Republican primary season?By The Week's Editorial Staff | The Week – Fri, Mar 9, 2012
http://news.yahoo.com/media-dragging-republican-primary-season-163900367.html
Dick Morris points out that after a brokered convention, there’d be only 2 months to wage a campaign against Obama – not enough time to be effective. Yesterday (March 9), he, Glenn Beck & Krauthammer said that Rick, Newt & Ron need to face the math and get out now for the good of the country. That we can’t afford a drawn-out primary or brokered convention – that would kill us against Obama.
A Santorum Email & My Response
This week I received the following Santorum solicitation email which truly angered me enough that I actually replied to it.
“Last night we once again produced a series of stunning upsets – we handily won Oklahoma, Tennessee and North Dakota and nearly won in Ohio despite being outspent 12 to 1 by Mitt Romney. We've proven we can win this race. Will you help us?
“I think this is because Americans are looking for a blue collar, Reagan conservative – not a Massachusetts moderate.
“Americans want a scrappy, determined, unflappable fighter that understands where they came from and what they are struggling with. There's only one candidate in this race that meets those criteria (hint: It's not Mitt Romney).
“And now, more than ever, I need you to join our scrappy campaign.
“With elections less than a week away in Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi, we MUST immediately replenish our funds to compete with Romney's war chest.
My response:
"Thou shalt not covet" Romney's warchest. Nor his manservants (organization). Nor his executive & business experience. Nor bear false witness that he's not unflappable -- he's weathered far more than Santorum & been the steadiest in this campaign.
Perhaps Romney needs a bigger war chest to overcome the anti-Mormon prejudices the Santorum campaign has highly leveraged, as well as the strategic voting campaigns with which Santorum has been complicit with the Democrats & Obama in certain states. And to make up for his lack of political savvy & polish, not being a career politician and Washington insider like Santorum. And that war chest has come from the sacrifice of many like myself who have informed themselves enough to make a wise investment in this country -- so you belittle people like me.
Romney's just a down-to-business, hard-working guy who loves this country and probably has the best ability to solve many of the biggest problems currently facing it. Santorum's continuing attacks and attempts to drag this primary out to the convention, with no realistic hope of anything but a brokered convention, is only self-serving and not being the "team player" he claims. Unless he's playing on Obama's team, which he apparently was in his strategic voting robocalls.
I hope I don't see more of these ads. You're certainly wasting your time here.
Other News
Just waiting for the other shoe to drop in the Middle East. Netanyahu's speech to the AIPAC the other day was a powerful justification for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Bolton thinks the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran is 60-70% or so. We need to brace for that. And here we are drastically cutting our military. Just this week my company announced that layoffs will begin around the end of the month – I’ve heard on the order of 10%. And throughout the aerospace industry there are at least as large cuts.
The videos Breitbart alluded to before his untimely death have now been found and released by his staff, and shown on Fox News. They show Harvard law student activist Obama introducing truly radical professor Derek Bell at a student rally calling for a strike. He spoke in glowing terms, and told them they need to open their hearts & listen to him, and then he embraced him. More consistency with Rev. Wright. There will be more vetting of Obama this time – even if not in the liberal press.
My last post got Romney’s number of Super Tuesday states right – 7 out of the 11, and was only wrong with N. Dakota. But he did get the one that I didn’t call – Ohio. And Ohio was a cliffhanger – not called until after 9:30pm Pacific Time. He’d also won Washington state over the weekend – his 5th in a row. Here are the full results.
About 6:40 PST (9:40 EST) Ann Romney gave a long introduction of Mitt in Boston, thanking many specific people in the various states. Mitt said in his victory speech that “for those who only see jobs they can’t have, you haven’t failed – your president has failed you, and needs to go. ...8% unemployment is not the best this country can do, but only the best this president can do. ...Real change is finally on the way. But our campaign is about more than replacing a president – it’s about restoring the promise of America. ....There are hard, long days of work ahead – tomorrow we wake up and start again. But Nov. 6 we’ll stand united to restore America....God bless this great land.”
Apparently this was enough for Dennis Prager, who’s been torn up to now, but came on the air the next day in a cheery mood, saying he now feels good about Romney based on what he heard in the Massachussetts speech – that he spoke about more than just jobs, but the deficit & strength of America. I think Romney’s been saying that before, so Dennis must have just missed it – easy to do w. the selective/spotty media coverage & debate sound bites. Probably reflective also of the general electorate, for whom it will take repetition & time for it to sink in, and feel comfortable. I respect Prager immensely, as well as Medved & Hewitt – my top 3 – all 3 of whom are now openly for Romney. I could care less about the openly anti-Mormon Gallagher, but am still disappointed in Levin. Beck & Gallagher sound like they’re making peace w. Romney, though they’d still prefer Santorum.
Massachusetts was a convincing win with 72%, and those are the people that know him best, where he lives and was governor. Much more convincing than Newt’s Georgia win. And the last time Pennsylvania spoke, they ousted Santorum convincingly. But Mitt also got at least 60% in Idaho & Virginia (true, 2 others weren’t on the ballot in VA). There were reports of some of the same strategic Democrat voting in Ohio as we saw in Michigan, so again the margin would otherwise have been larger. As expected, Santorum & Gingrich did well in the South & Evangelical country.
So here are the current cumulative committed delegate counts, out of 811 in states up to Super Tuesday (from RealClearPolitics.com). Note that there are uncommitted delegates in caucus states, until their later state conventions.
Romney 404 (50%)
Santorum 161 (20%)
Gingrich 105 (13%)
Paul 61 (8%)
The Way Forward to the Nomination -- Doing the Math
I created the following simple mathematical spreadsheet to "do the math" to see how feasible it might be for each candidate to accumulate the rest of the 1144 needed to secure the nomination by various state primary dates before the convention. This may be especially useful for those candidates who can't seem to do the math. Next to the upcoming election dates are the corresponding cumulative number of remaining (after Super Tuesday) delegates awarded up to and including that date, courtesy of TheGreenPapers.com.
To the right I show the fraction of all remaining delegates each candidate must win to reach 1144 by each date. The earliest any candidate can do it is Mitt, May 8, but he would have to win 88% of the remaining delegates – highly unlikely, seeing how he’s currently averaged 50%, and there’s no indication of others dropping out, and some Southern states coming up next. But Mitt’s the only one who can reach 1144 before the convention at his current rate – he’d barely get it on the very last primary date, July 14. If he does worse, it would be a brokered convention. If he does just a few % better, he could do it by June 5. But May 29 would be much tougher, requiring 67% -- less likely unless there are unexpected big changes – dropouts, gaffes, etc.
Santorum would have to win at least 67% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination before the convention – a rate more than 3 times his rate up to now. Gingrich would have to win at least 70% -- 6 times his current rate. And Ron Paul 73% -- 9 times his current rate. The bottom line is that it’s very possible for Romney to secure the nomination before the convention – in June or July, and highly unlikely for even Santorum without earth-shaking changes. But if Romney stumbles or lets up at all, and no one drops out, there is a real possibility of a brokered convention, which hasn’t really happened in the GOP since 1920.
A Brokered Convention?
Clearly my earlier May 8 estimate was somewhat optimistic, especially in light of the apparently strong commitments of all the other delegates to press on after Super Tuesday, all the way to the convention. One has to conclude that either they & their team can’t do the simple math I just showed (unlikely for career politicians), or they are of one mind and hell-bent on stopping Romney at all costs to force a brokered convention – their only hope. Although their voting share may diminish as the electorate & donors come to a realization of the futility – unless in large numbers they (as their candidate) pin their hopes on a brokered convention.
As tough as it will be for Romney who's considerably ahead, the others don't have a realistic chance of doing it before the convention, and the only reason they stay in is to force a brokered convention, which is not necessarily the best for the GOP or our general election chances -- especially on top of all negative fallout from this already brutal extended fight. I know Palin is actually hoping for that, and has indicated she'd be willing to be considered at that point. I doubt her electability is even as good as the other non-Romneys, and theirs in turn is unlikely as good as Romney's. By this time 4 years ago Romney had dropped out for the good of the party (& country), and campaigned actively for McCain -- a team player.
But Romney over the past year has been by far the steadiest in polls and performance, consistently coming back after temporary setbacks. And the term he chose in a debate to describe himself was “resolute.” As he said in his speech, he’s prepared to get up tomorrow and go to work. He has a proven organization and resources. And one might expect somewhat of a bandwagon effect – success breeds success. I don’t recall having disagreed w. Krauthammer, but I will here – I don’t think Romney will get weaker w. time. These surges by others come and go.
March 10 Update – a Turning Point?
With Kansas, Guam, N. Marianas Islands & Virgin Islands behind us, Romney is now at 55% of delegates, according to the NYT – moving upwards – a nice geometric progression, each candidate having twice the delegates of the next below him:
Mitt – 454
Rick – 217
Newt – 107
Ron -- 47
I think we’re at the point of turning upward, as hinted at in polls this week in Alabama & Mississippi, and a growing chorus of GOP thinkers and speakers for candidates to drop out. The next few Southern states were not expected to favor Romney, but a poll I saw the other day showed Romney even or ahead of Gingrich in Alabama & Mississippi – must-wins for Gingrich, who’s only been a regional (Southern) candidate so far. That could knock Gingrich out of the race. Ron Paul’s just a curmudgeon who’ll fight on to air the Libertarian world view. And Santorum’s idealistic but delusional.
They keep saying how weak Romney is, but he’s the only one who can realistically secure the nomination before the convention. And which of them has shown anywhere near as much strength? Oh, yes, they think their conviction, values, conservatism, intelligence and/or debating skills are so superior to Romney’s. But if all that can’t help them any more than it has in the GOP primaries, how do they think they’ll fare in the general election, where it’ll be even tougher, by their own admission?
The way I see it, Republicans were so psyched out about the disaster of 2008 after nominating a true moderate, and the disaster of Obama, that the pendulum overswung to the right. This is evident in that Romney was the conservative (CPAC) choice in 2008, but is viewed now (I still think incorrectly) as not conservative enough. But then and now were both overswings that did and could again result in disaster. Polls continue to show Romney more electable in the general election. And not only that, he’s more qualified and experienced to actually fill the office as an executive, and to tackle this elephant in the room – the economy & debt. But a fair fraction of the electorate (Mitt’s steady 30% over the last year) consistently saw that clearly, and the rest appear to slowly be coming to their senses.
John Bolton said this week that Romney’s executive experience qualifies him for the presidency. Brit Hume said regarding Newt’s complaining about Mitt having campaigned 6 years, that that’s hard work and pays off with a national organization. And Newt & Rick suffered from a lack of that – not appearing on the ballot in various places. And I’d note that Mitt’s campaigning was on behalf of fellow Republicans to win key state and Congressional positions – team player, again. And something we must not neglect as well – to give a Republican president the support of a Republican Congress, to assure change.
On March 6 Prager disagreed w. George Will, who said we ought to give up on the presidency and focus energy & resources on Congress instead. He said we shouldn’t get in a funk – Mitt’s the best chance to win – be positive. Perhaps reflective of what he says on his weekly “Happiness Hour” -- we need to act happy even if we don’t feel it.
On top of the Democrat (& Santorum) recruiting of Democrats for Santorum in open primaries, another part of the narrow margins for Romney in Michigan & Ohio, is the anti-Mormon Evangelical vote. It's obvious (especially in the South but also elsewhere) when comparing with every other category of voters that Romney dominates. I think it's unfortunate -- this is not a theological contest. Romney's values are solid, and he's well-qualified -- I'd say better-qualified -- in the important areas – especially the existential threats to the economy and related security strength. All my life I've voted gladly for people of other denominations, and didn't think twice about it, regardless of religious differences.
Axelrod tweeted a Romney attack at 1am at the end of Super Tuesday – they’re obviously most worried about him.
I noted that the media seemed to diminish Romney’s clear lead & 7-state win on Super Tuesday. ABC news talked about his “getting votes, but not love.” This would be expected of the liberal press, and liberals in general, for whom to be loved is the end-all – for a president (like Obama), as well as the US in the international arena. For them, to be loved is more important than being respected, or actual qualifications and accomplishments. Then today I saw this, tending to confirm my earlier remarks about media manipulation of the GOP primary, and certainly at least public opinion.
Is the media dragging out the Republican primary season?By The Week's Editorial Staff | The Week – Fri, Mar 9, 2012
http://news.yahoo.com/media-dragging-republican-primary-season-163900367.html
Dick Morris points out that after a brokered convention, there’d be only 2 months to wage a campaign against Obama – not enough time to be effective. Yesterday (March 9), he, Glenn Beck & Krauthammer said that Rick, Newt & Ron need to face the math and get out now for the good of the country. That we can’t afford a drawn-out primary or brokered convention – that would kill us against Obama.
A Santorum Email & My Response
This week I received the following Santorum solicitation email which truly angered me enough that I actually replied to it.
“Last night we once again produced a series of stunning upsets – we handily won Oklahoma, Tennessee and North Dakota and nearly won in Ohio despite being outspent 12 to 1 by Mitt Romney. We've proven we can win this race. Will you help us?
“I think this is because Americans are looking for a blue collar, Reagan conservative – not a Massachusetts moderate.
“Americans want a scrappy, determined, unflappable fighter that understands where they came from and what they are struggling with. There's only one candidate in this race that meets those criteria (hint: It's not Mitt Romney).
“And now, more than ever, I need you to join our scrappy campaign.
“With elections less than a week away in Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi, we MUST immediately replenish our funds to compete with Romney's war chest.
My response:
"Thou shalt not covet" Romney's warchest. Nor his manservants (organization). Nor his executive & business experience. Nor bear false witness that he's not unflappable -- he's weathered far more than Santorum & been the steadiest in this campaign.
Perhaps Romney needs a bigger war chest to overcome the anti-Mormon prejudices the Santorum campaign has highly leveraged, as well as the strategic voting campaigns with which Santorum has been complicit with the Democrats & Obama in certain states. And to make up for his lack of political savvy & polish, not being a career politician and Washington insider like Santorum. And that war chest has come from the sacrifice of many like myself who have informed themselves enough to make a wise investment in this country -- so you belittle people like me.
Romney's just a down-to-business, hard-working guy who loves this country and probably has the best ability to solve many of the biggest problems currently facing it. Santorum's continuing attacks and attempts to drag this primary out to the convention, with no realistic hope of anything but a brokered convention, is only self-serving and not being the "team player" he claims. Unless he's playing on Obama's team, which he apparently was in his strategic voting robocalls.
I hope I don't see more of these ads. You're certainly wasting your time here.
Other News
Just waiting for the other shoe to drop in the Middle East. Netanyahu's speech to the AIPAC the other day was a powerful justification for Israel to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Bolton thinks the likelihood of an Israeli strike on Iran is 60-70% or so. We need to brace for that. And here we are drastically cutting our military. Just this week my company announced that layoffs will begin around the end of the month – I’ve heard on the order of 10%. And throughout the aerospace industry there are at least as large cuts.
The videos Breitbart alluded to before his untimely death have now been found and released by his staff, and shown on Fox News. They show Harvard law student activist Obama introducing truly radical professor Derek Bell at a student rally calling for a strike. He spoke in glowing terms, and told them they need to open their hearts & listen to him, and then he embraced him. More consistency with Rev. Wright. There will be more vetting of Obama this time – even if not in the liberal press.
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