Trump & Rubio in the Balance and Doing the Math

     1.  Recap of Primary & Debate News
2.    Why not Trump?
3.    Do the Math
4.    Why Rubio?
5.    Democrats, Socialists & Republicans

Recap of Primary & Debate News

Iowa. Looks like it was basically a 3-way GOP tie in Iowa, with Rubio making a surprisingly strong showing -- voters are finally getting to know him, after the distractions of the loud, shiny frontrunners. And Trump was shown to be beatable.  Rubio's speech was presidential -- articulate, visionary and heartfelt. Finally the Summer & Fall of Trump appears to be over. So the Iowa "carcases" are Paul, Bush, Christie, Kasich, Fiorina, Carson & Huckabee (who just dropped out officially), each getting 1-5%. On the Democrat side, an even tighter tie between Hillary & the dinosaur Socialist, which shows how disliked Hillary is, and/or how far Left the party has gone.

For what it's worth, putting my money where my mouth is, I donated to the Rubio & Fiorina campaigns. I think they'd make a great ticket, based on a number of impressive presentations & their demonstrated capabilities. Still waiting for the rest of the GOP to come to that realization. By the way, I think Mitt chose wisely when he had Rubio introduce him after his nomination in 2012 -- I was there in the convention hall & it was great!

I think Cruz comes across as a divider rather than uniter beyond his base.  To me he's kind of grating.  I think his negatives (like Trump's) are too high both inside & outside the GOP to win the general election.  I think Rubio is better on all of those counts.  I was thinking how Reaganesque Rubio came across in his speech the night of the Iowa caucases, and another pundit later said so, too.  He was very upbeat & America-centered.  Cruz' speech was too much like a born-again preacher, too long, too self-absorbed.

New Hampshire.  So after the New Hampshire primary, there were 2 more casualties:  Fiorina & Christie.  They both may have futures in a GOP administration.  Actually, all the candidates are so talented they should, if they can get over the bloodletting.  Christie is being called a suicide bomber for his attack on Rubio at the debate Saturday – he does come across as a bully, getting personal rather than substance in his attack.  Rubio committed an “unpardonable” sin of repeating himself during the debate – it was a lapse under pressure, but he’s generally fine unscripted, and assured us that won’t happen again.  It does appear to have slowed his momentum in NH, however.

S. Carolina & Nevada.  With the increasing likelihood of a brokered convention, Hewett & Arn raised the historical parallel of the 1860 GOP convention, where Lincoln was something like 4^th in delegates, but after 2 ½ ballots was selected as the nominee.  They and other pundits were saying the finalists now appear likely to be Trump, Cruz, Kasich, and either Bush or Rubio.  The latter 2 are from Florida, and conventional wisdom was that one of them was likely to drop out after the Florida primary.  But  after S. Carolina & Nevada, Bush also dropped out, leaving it basically a 3-man race, with Trump, Rubio & Cruz all double-digits, and Kasich & Carson single-digits.  We’ll see who else drops out after Super Tuesday, March 1, or at least by the next big multi-state day 2 weeks later.

At the 10^th debate, Rubio came out swinging, and was widely recognized as winning that debate.  Better late than never.  Trump took some hard punches, and Rubio showed his resilience and more of his fire-in-the-belly in a crunch time. 

Months ago I joked with a number of people how entertaining it would be to see a one-on-one debate between Trump & Sanders – the arch-capitalist vs. the arch-socialist.  That possibility is now looking more and more within the realm of possibility than I ever seriously thought.

Why Not Trump

Character.  Trump’s character is revealed in his very personal attacks on others.  These take the form of what you’d expect from a school-boy bully, or as someone said, someone running for class president, not how a president of the U.S. would carry himself.  From misogynistic remarks, to making fun of a handicapped reporter, to liberally calling others liars, fools, “choke artist,” etc.

It’s been said you have insights into one’s character by looking at their friends, associates & endorsements.  Putin seems to like him.  Harry Reid, Schumer & the Dems (& the liberal media) do & would like him to be the candidate because they are much more confident Hillary can beat him than Rubio, for instance.  Interesting that Chris Christie endorsed Trump after Christie dropped out.  A bit odd because Christie gave the Rubio campaign his donor/email list after dropping out, then shortly after endorsed Trump.  But maybe understandable in the sense that birds of a feather flock together – both being brash NY/NJ guys with similar temperament.  And temperament seems to be one of Christie’s reasons for endorsing Trump – that he has what it would take to make us strong again – at least in terms of will or force of personality, if not consistent ideology, know-how or support.  Like many of Trump’s supporters, I think he focuses on the contrast w. the non-assertive Obama, but let’s not swing the pendulum too far in the opposite direction – sometimes the most stable & effective position is in between.

In typical projection fashion, he accuses Rubio of repeating himself in a debate, but doesn’t realize how frequently he repeats himself in the same sentence or single response – something I’d noted earlier, and Rubio mentioned in the last debate.

Con Artist.  Rubio, a bit out of character but rightly, calls Trump a con artist who we should not allow to take over the GOP.  “Con” is short for confidence, and Trump has artfully gained the confidence of some 30+% of the GOP who seem oblivious or uncaring of his many faults and shortcomings.  Trump himself, practically bragging, said he could shoot someone in Times Square & not fall in the polls – so blindly devoted are his followers.  He is a real estate man who is good at selling himself, as he’s done in his self-promotions over the years in reality TV programs, and other media opportunities.  And in today’s pop culture & age of reality TV where Trump is bigger than life, he’s a hero to many who can’t seem to separate that from real life politics and government.  He’s a star, and his followers are every bit as star-struck and blinded as were Obama’s devotees.

Blackmailer.  And like a thug, he’s also been blackmailing the GOP with initial threats of going 3^rd party if they don’t treat him nice.  Maybe that is partly why most candidates were going easy on him in the earlier debates.  Even after finally pledging in one debate not to bolt, he’s since backed off again and threatened the possibility.  I suppose if somehow he doesn’t get the nomination he may well yet do a 3^rd party run, which of course would throw the election to Hillary. If so, either way – as our nominee or 3^rd party – he would give the election to Hillary, who he’s donated to and praised in the past.  His GOP bona fides are definitely not well-established.

I agree with Rubio (and I’ve been saying for some time) that it’s time to open our eyes about Trump.  Rubio says he won’t let a con artist take control of the party of Lincoln.

He’s an orator – and not really all that good – but haven’t we already had a great orator for president the last 7 years who failed miserably?  People were won over with Obama’s power of persuasion, his “hope & change” promises, his preternatural self-confidence, as Prager calls it.  People were so poisoned by the media about Bush that they gladly followed that confidence man – and look where it got us.  There was likewise great dissatisfaction and yearnings for a better life that caused people to place blind trust in Hitler, Lenin, Mao, etc.  Hitler also promised to restore Germany to greatness.  Peggy Noonan recently wrote that Trump supporters are basically the “unprotected” – who need a strong protector, which Trump claims to be.  Those governing (of both parties) are protected and often not concerned for the unprotected. 

Lack of Substance.  But there’s no substance in Trump’s policies.  He just waves it off and says, “believe me,” and “we’ll be great again,” “we’ll be winning, winning, winning,” and “I’ll get the right people.”  There is total lack of substance on his website. 

Lying.  For all his accusations of others being liars, it seems to be another case of projection, and an easy and over-used counter to any attack on him.  In the Feb. 13 debate, Trump repeating this lie (that Bush lied) is just another disqualifier for him. I'd expect it from a Leftist, Democrat, Socialist, Progressive or Liberal -- not from a serious GOP candidate. Nor his questioning Cruz's citizenship. etc., etc. He can't even deal with bogus issues, let alone serious, real ones, or distinguish between them.

A bi-partisan panel agrees. It's a lie that "Bush lied."  http://www.wsj.com/articles/laurence-h-silberman-the-dangerous-lie-that-bush-lied-1423437950

The Dangerous Lie That ‘Bush Lied’

In The Wall Street Journal, Judge Laurence Silberman writes that some journalists still peddle this canard as if it were fact. This is defamatory and could end up hurting the country.

WSJ.COM|BY LAURENCE H. SILBERMAN

Trump does have a good family, which is commendable.  And a beautiful (3^rd) wife.  I had to laugh the other day, though, when on a local morning AM talk show they played clips of her speaking at Trump’s post-election rally, with her strong East European accent.  And they also played the “Green Acres” theme – for those who don’t remember, Zsa-Zsa Gabor played the wife in that TV show, and has a thick Hungarian accent.

There are various other I think good reasons Trump isn’t our best candidate. 

Lack of consistently conservative principles.  Trump says he can make good deals, unlike his opponents, and has even written a book on the art of the deal.  That’s all fine and good, but what are his objectives, values and guiding principles that describe what kind of results to expect – what kind of deal?  He has no real conservative record of any convincing length, and in some areas is still openly quite liberal.  One indication is when he says he won’t take sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, so as to better broker a deal – a compromise.  But he duplicitously says he’s the strongest supporter of Israel – Medved pointed out that other than being grand marshall in a Jewish parade, how?  His knowledge & credibility is really poor, especially in foreign policy.  People claim to like him because he’s not PC, yet here he’s falling back on liberal moral relativism.  He can’t see or say that Israeli self-defense measures are any nobler than suicide bombers killing innocent women & children, or lobbing thousands of rockets into civilian areas, or not being willing to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist.

Trump supporters seem obsessed w. being fed-up w. politics as usual, and wanting any non-politician, assuming that that is the solution.  Not necessarily ANY non-politician, and I believe certainly not Trump.  This election in particular is far too important to be dominated by emotion.

Inevitability? It sickens me to see some more neutral conservative pundits talking of the growing possibility of the inevitability of Trump, or already throwing in the towel, and trying to tone down GOP opposition to him, and recruit those who say they’d never vote for him even in a general election against Hillary.  I think this is a critical juncture, and we need to speak now against Trump, or forever hold our silence.  Yes, presumably he would choose better Supreme Court nominees than Hillary, but let’s cross that bridge only if and when we must.  And in the meantime do all we can to support those we feel would be much preferable, before it really is too late.  Which it shortly may well be.  Let’s not prematurely sweep the dust (including possible financial skeletons in Trump’s closet, as Romney intimated regarding releasing Trump’s tax returns) under the carpet – the Dems will surely uncover and use all of it in the general election.

“Do the Math”

Polls show that Trump can’t even get a majority of the GOP, let alone the general electorate.  He’s never exceeded about 35% in any race and has held steady at that level, and the percent who say they’d never vote for him is over 60%.  He has the lowest ceiling of any of the candidates.  I.e., when other candidates continue to drop out, the vast majority of their votes are not going to go to Trump, but rather to whomever else is left in the narrower field. 

Trustworthiness.  Polls show that among the GOP, Rubio is considered the most trustworthy, Trump the least.

An RNC Rule.  There’s also another hitch to Trump even getting the GOP nomination. Rule 40 in the RNC handbook states that any candidate for president “shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states” before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention. “Marjority” means over half – not just a plurality (more than any other candidate) of the votes in at least 8 of the states.  Not sure how many winner-take-all states there are other than S. Carolina, or if Trump could get 8 of those, but If Trump’s ceiling of about 40% holds generally, he is not likely to achieve that in the proportionate states.  We’ll see how he does on Super Tuesday, and it may get even harder for him after then when the field narrows and people begin coalescing around a single “non-Trump” who has the very likely potential of some 60% of the remaining voters.

Large Field Effects.  But as long as there is such a large field of non-Trumps dividing up fairly evenly some 65% of the GOP vote, Trump will continue to dominate, and make it harder for the eventual non-Trump to reach the needed delegate count.  So there is increasing pressure for the lower tier (single-digit) candidates – Kasich & Carson – to get out.  Although both of them say they’re in no hurry to.  Kasich argues we need at least one governor as a final choice, and may hold out at least to Ohio’s primary, which would also possibly hurt Trump, just as hopefully Florida would favor Rubio over Trump.  But it’s a bit of a prisoners’ dilemma.  And maybe the lower tier guys are even holding out for a brokered convention, or for leverage in negotiating a position in an administration.  Some feel Kasich’s ceiling is also fairly low, consisting mainly of more moderate/liberal GOP voters.

For the general election, polls consistently have been showing in head-to-head matchups against Hillary, the presumed Dem nominee, Trump would lose, whereas Rubio, Cruz and Carson would each win.  Rubio has the best shot, and this nation simply cannot afford another Democrat presidential term.  The damage to the nation may be irreversible.

Why Rubio

Foreign Policy.  Of the remaining candidates, Rubio is easily the most knowledgeable, articulate and clear on foreign policy, which is a key issue. 

Temperament.  Rubio has been the most even-tempered (other than Carson who’s too laid back), although he has shown more fire in the belly in the last debate – an indication that when the chips are down, and the stakes so high (Trump potentially hijacking the party) he will rise to the occasion.

Unifier.  I believe he’s right when he says he’s the one who can best unify not only the party, but the country.  Trump & Cruz are both too polarizing, Trump with such high negatives, and Cruz too outspokenly & uncompromisingly extreme – as Trump pointed out, he hasn’t a single endorsement from his colleagues in the Senate.  How could he work effectively even with a GOP Congress?

Conservative.  Despite Cruz’ claims to being the purest, most unabashedly and uncompromisingly conservative candidate, Heritage Action scorecard shows Rubio 4^th most conservative Senator: http://heritageactionscorecard.com/

 “Marco Rubio is Plenty Conservative” http://www.nationalreview.com/article/429088/marco-rubio-conservative-record

Conservative Review profile: https://www.conservativereview.com/members/marco-rubio/

Rush Limbaugh:  “ I don’t see Marco Rubio as anything other than a legitimate, full-throated conservative.”

Compromiser.  And pundits have noted that Ronald Reagan himself was not as uncompromising as Cruz promises to be, and was more liked on both sides of the aisle.  In the real world, compromises must be made to make government work, to break the stalemate we’ve seen over the last several years under Obama (due in large part to his uncompromising partisanship), which has resulted in the reaction against status quo government that has propelled Trump & Sanders to such heights.  While Trump has made business deals, Rubio has been making political ones (including as leader of the Florida legislature) that are much more relevant, and much more ideologically consistent.

Passionate & Articulate.  I think that Christie’s debate attack on Rubio (& the media’s complicity) that depict him as robotic or canned are entirely at odds with, and unfair to, the sincerity, passion, articulateness and lucidity I’ve seen him display on various occasions. 

Rubio Endorsements

He’s ahead in the “endorsement primary” (endorsements by representatives, senators, governors): http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

Conservative Pundits:  Charles Krauthammer, Michael Medved, Dennis Prager

Rush Limbaugh:  “ I don’t see Marco Rubio as anything other than a legitimate, full-throated conservative.”

Governors: Bobby Jindal, George Pataki

Senators: Rick Santorum, Phil Graham

U.S. Representatives:  Trey Gowdy, Jason Chaffetz, Mia Love

Gary Kasparov

https://marcorubio.com/issues/

A message from Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina:

"Wednesday night, I announced my endorsement of Marco Rubio for President.

"I did not make this decision lightly or quickly. I've looked at all of the candidates running for president: their records, their experience, and their plans for the future, and I'm saying this with certainty: Marco Rubio is the leader we need in the White House.

"Marco Rubio will stand up for not only the citizens of South Carolina but every American. He will fight to protect the lives of the unborn, cut taxes for working Americans, and keep us safe.

"...we are all in this race together. Our nation's future is on the line in this election and we need a leader with a conservative vision for how to make the future bright again.

"Marco Rubio has that vision, but he needs our help to win. He is in a heated election that is only going to get tougher -- that's why our support today is so critical.

"As a Governor, I know how tough it can be to fight for conservative reforms -- but I also know our country can't thrive without them. Marco has shown his ability to fight for important reforms in the Senate, too, like finally bringing some degree of accountability to the VA.

"As a mother, I agree with Marco that the family is the most important institution in our society. We need our next president to be one who values families and creates opportunities for them to grow rather than burdening them with unfair taxes. Marco has been a stalwart fighter for families and will keep up that fight as President.

"I also want our next president to be one who values all Americans, and brings our conservative message to them, and I know South Carolinians do too. I know no better leader to do that than Marco Rubio."

Here’s another testament to his foreign policy & credibility by a brilliant political observer, Gary Kasparov, interviewed recently by Dennis Prager.  He didn’t know how Kasparov would answer his question:

2/11/16.  Prager Hour 2: Dennis talks to Gary Kasparov, the number one ranked chess player in the world for twenty years. In 2005, he retired from professional chess to lead the pro-democracy opposition against Vladimir Putin, from street protests to coalition building. In 2012, he was named chairman of the Human Rights Foundation, succeeding Václav Havel. His new book, now out in paperback is, Winter Is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped… 

Prager: “Do you believe there are any [presidential] candidates that would stand up to Putin better than others?”

Kasparov: “In the absence of Truman or Reagan….Marco Rubio – the only one who I think believes in what he is saying and who will try his best to revive strong foreign policy that will help America restore its credibility.”

Der Spiegel interview w. Kasparov regarding his new book:  http://en.chessbase.com/post/garry-kasparov-winter-is-coming

WSJ review: http://www.kasparov.com/blog-post/the-chess-master-vs-putin-wsj-winter-is-coming-book-review/

Go Marco! He moved up to 2nd in S. Carolina. And Bush is out. It's looking like a 3 man race -- Trump, Rubio & Cruz. Although Kasich & Carson are still in, both in the single digits. A much more diverse field than the Dems -- that may appeal to some (values are more important to me) -- the first Hispanic president. And Nikki Haley or Carly Fiorina may be the first woman vice president.

Democrats, Socialists & Republicans

I think Bernie Sanders' appeal among youth is partly seeing thru Hillary's dishonesty and her unlikeability. But also all the freebies promised by socialism, without consideration of the costs. And they have no sense of the historical failure of socialism & communism. There's also the susceptibility of youth to peer pressure, and desire to be like everyone else -- e.g., the socialist countries of Europe, Russia, China,....

The Revolution added a new video: Milton Friedman - Socialism vs. Capitalism.Like Page

January 8 · 

Watch Milton Friedman OWN this socialist who thinks he can equate greed with capitalism.
The Revolution like emoticon
Video from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76frHHpoNFs

FBI investigations continue on Hillary’s classified emails, and we’ll see if Obama’s DOJ can be even remotely objective and indict her if the evidence warrants, which it seems to.  Again, I’d be thrown in the slammer & lose my clearances if I did even a fraction of what she’s done.  Let alone be allowed to continue to have access to the information the president of the U.S. must.  As Rubio says, she is disqualified from the presidency based alone on her laxity of security, and her lying about Benghazi.

So nice to see Pres. Obama "taking his constitutional responsibilities seriously" -- when it benefits him to select yet another Supreme Court nominee in the wake of Justice Scalia's death.  But not defending or upholding the constitution otherwise -- enforcing border laws, executive orders,. budget,...etc., etc.  And clearly we should take our lessons from the Democrat precedence of not considering Supreme Court nominees during the last year or more of a president's last term.

Greatest Democratic Judicial Hits 

What Republicans learned about judicial nominations from Harry Reid and Barack Obama, the Wall Street Journal writes in an editorial. 

WSJ.COM 

Some good movie clips contrasting Republicans and Democrats

The zombie apocalypse is real.

Bob Hope Says Democrats Are Like Zombies.

Another good one.

James Stewart Republican versus Henry Fonda Democrat

James Stewart Republican versus Henry Fonda Democrat in the movie ; The Cheyenne Social Club