High Ground Underground

Iowa & New Hampshire It was the narrowest of squeakers in Iowa, but Mitt did a bit better than expected. Maybe my calls the Saturday before to get out his supporters to the caucuses actually helped give him those several votes that made the difference. And yes, there was at least one Iowa “carcass” – Bachman. And for all the hoopla we heard 4 years ago about how many dollars per vote Romney spent, it was Perry by far with the dollars per vote this time – no doubt another soon-to-be carcass with a fraction of 1% in New Hampshire. And a historic win for Romney today in New Hampshire – no non-incumbent GOP candidate has ever won both Iowa & New Hampshire! And I think that says a lot, that the people who know him best (New Hampshire) came out so strongly for him. Things will no doubt be tougher, though, in S. Carolina on Jan. 21 and Florida Jan. 31. Most agree that if he wins them, it’s over. But many are screaming about a too-early coronation. If the anti-Romney vote remains divid...

My personal Nevada Poll On Oct. 15 I volunteered for Mitt Romney’s campaign, making survey phone calls for 3 hours to GOP voters in the Las Vegas area (N. Las Vegas, Boulder City, Henderson, Pahrump, Alamo, Searchlight (Harry Reid country), Beatty, Tonopah, Overton, Panaca, Pioche & Round Mountain) just days before the CNN debate there. Questions included: what’s the next most important issue besides the economy & jobs, which candidate do you support, whether they planned on participating in the Nevada caucuses, and if they support Romney, whether they’d be willing to help and/or receive emails. I made 93 calls, and got 18 to go thru the survey. Of those 18, 5 ½ for Romney (halves were split w. another candidate), 3 + two halves for Cain, 1 for Newt & ½ for Ron Paul. 7 undecided. A small sample, but seems consistent w. national polls, except Perry. I also left 39 voice messages (expected on a Sat. afternoon), 12 were unavailable (someone else answered), 10 not intere...

Leveling The Playing Field Regarding the GOP race, this is no time to count any chickens before they’ve hatched. As has been pointed out, at this time in the last election, John McCain was only polling 3%. There are still at least a couple of very possible strong, late entries, missteps and key endorsements to be made, debates to be won and lost, and domestic and international events to unfold. The debate this week saw the boxing gloves put aside for now, and niceties from and for all except Barack Obama. But warning shots like “Obamneycare” had already been fired, and the truce will no doubt be only temporary. Nonetheless, polls last week showed Romney leading the GOP pack, and the only one beating Obama in a head-to-head contest. Of course part of that is due to name recognition from the last election, and the dilution of votes among the wide and lesser-known field of candidates. But the post-debate polls show Romney at 33% of GOP likely voters, and Bachmann at 19%, with the re...