High Ground Underground

The Gift that Keeps on Giving Newt seems to be riding a second wave, this one in good part of the making of the liberal media running the debates. He’s now capitalized in 2 debates in a row on gimme questions providing the perfect segway to lashing out against the liberal media – a favorite target of conservatives. First was the Jan. 16 debate response to Juan Williams’ insinuation that his having poor kids work (e.g., school cleanup) was racially demeaning. Conservatives are tired of liberals’ overreach with the race card. The other Jan. 19 to King’s leadoff about his ex-wife’s public accusations of him asking for an open marriage. His indignant responses elicited wild applause and a standing ovation. Santorum has said that “I don’t know how much Newt paid King for that question, but it wasn’t enough.” He, too, felt it was a significant factor in his last-minute surge in the South Carolina polls, and his win there. An anti-mainstream-media vote. Of course there were likely other facto...

Iowa & New Hampshire It was the narrowest of squeakers in Iowa, but Mitt did a bit better than expected. Maybe my calls the Saturday before to get out his supporters to the caucuses actually helped give him those several votes that made the difference. And yes, there was at least one Iowa “carcass” – Bachman. And for all the hoopla we heard 4 years ago about how many dollars per vote Romney spent, it was Perry by far with the dollars per vote this time – no doubt another soon-to-be carcass with a fraction of 1% in New Hampshire. And a historic win for Romney today in New Hampshire – no non-incumbent GOP candidate has ever won both Iowa & New Hampshire! And I think that says a lot, that the people who know him best (New Hampshire) came out so strongly for him. Things will no doubt be tougher, though, in S. Carolina on Jan. 21 and Florida Jan. 31. Most agree that if he wins them, it’s over. But many are screaming about a too-early coronation. If the anti-Romney vote remains divid...

Only 2 days to go until the Iowa caucuses, and the polls show Romney narrowly leading. The other 2 with significant ground presence & organization, Ron Paul and Santorum, have risen somewhat at Gingrich's expense, showing a moderate "flavor-of-the-month" bump. Gingrich did indeed peak and have a precipitous fall, as it was starting to look like two weeks ago. His baggage is showing. I can't imagine extremist Ron Paul rising much more, but we'll see how big Santorum's bump is. Bachman seems to be down in the noise, even in her "home" territory. Yesterday (Saturday) I placed a couple dozen calls for the Romney campaign -- to Iowa. In my small sample, two-thirds of those who answered said they were for Romney, and the rest were undecided (one leaning towards Ron Paul), and the Romney supporters were definitely going to participate in the caucuses. So we'll see after Tuesday who the Iowa "carcases" are -- the field may start to narrow, ...

Here's Real Clear Politics' national poll tracking graph for the past year, showing Romney (purple) & Ron Paul (yellow) the steadiest. Beginning in June, when the campaign & debates picked up, you see one by one the various "flavors of the month" (or about 6 weeks) peaking -- Bachman (black), Perry (blue), Cain (red), Gingrich (green). Gingrich already peaked and falling. Brown is Santorum, pink Huntsman. Romney's picked up a couple key endorsements in early primary states -- the Des Moines (Iowa) Register, and Gov. Nikki Haley of S. Carolina (a Tea Party favorite). I'll repeat my little home-made ode that's appropriate here (goes to the tune of "Pumped up Kicks"): All the other pols with the pumped up polls, Better run, better run -- outrun Team Romney. All the other pols with the pumped up polls, Better run, better run -- faster than Mitt Romney.

Before I launch into some debate & spin analysis, and more recent campaign flare-ups (it has become very obvious since my last post that there is no chance of a Romney-Newt ticket), in case of any short on time or attention spans, here is a brief Mitt vs Newt (& occasional Obama) comparison. I regret this blog format doesn’t accommodate a ledger or spreadsheet table for side-by-side comparison. Leadership & Teamwork: Mitt has successfully led Bain Capital & various businesses to success, successful governor of Massachusetts working with a heavily Democrat legislature, successfully turned around a demoralized 2002 Olympics program, and honorably led as “pastor” (bishop and stake president) a congregation and group of congregations in his church. He’s had an exemplary 42-year marriage & family that love to spend time together. Newt led an initially successful conservative House & Contract w. America, but after his leadership was shown wanting, was ousted by his f...

The GOP Race – With 5 Weeks to go Before the Voting Begins Another few weeks pass by and we have another flavor of the month (black walnut is now passé) – Newt Gingrich. I’ve heard a proposal for another dynamic duo – Romney-Gingrich. A caller to Dennis Miller’s show spoke of “splatter politics” – a debate between Newt & Biden would be like clubbing pup seals. Most experts are in agreement that it’s coming down to Mitt & Newt. Some highly unusual names – on top of Barrack. Newt is claiming to be more conservative and electable than Mitt, to which Mitt responds, “we’ll see in the course of the debates.” There doesn’t seem to be huge position differences between many of the candidates (certainly relative to Obama – except perhaps Ron Paul), and I’ve previously cited Mitt’s very conservative record in Massachusetts – despite a solidly liberal legislature. Many talking heads feel that Mitt may have a tougher time in the primaries, but do better in the general election with a greate...

On this Halloween, I can’t think of anything scarier than the thought of another Obama term. But the GOP race is lately a bit scary, as well, with mud flying. Following up on my last blog, regarding Romneycare, I now feel vindicated for my intuition. Perry is scaring people by running an ad with clips of Romney that show him apparently endorsing Romneycare for the nation like Obamacare. But when interviewed on the Russert program, Romney said that Perry’s ad misleadingly left out the explicit qualification he gave at the same time of “not at the federal level.” Sometimes you have to suspend judgment or use common sense until you have the facts. As the saying goes, a lie (or half-truth) goes halfway around the world before the truth gets out the door. To raise an accusation is always easier and less time-consuming than to answer it. But to prove I can be objective and reasonably fair, I was disappointed at an ad I saw run by the Romney campaign showing Perry bumbling in the debate...