Poll Reversal, Cantankery in Kentucky & Bengazi-gate

The Polls – What a Difference a Week Makes!

Previous posts have discussed the biased polling, using untypical Democrat voter turnout rates from 2008, whereas the Obama thrill has worn off.  Interesting to look at the national polling of Obama vs. Romney over the last year, as shown below from RealClearPolitics.com (RCP).  Blue is Obama, red Romney.

The two were within a point or two the first 4 months, Oct.-Jan., before the primary elections began.  Then the press started giving publicity to the “flavor of the month” candidates who were of course attacking Romney, hurting his numbers relative to Obama – increasing the spread up to 6 points.  Note the monthly swings from Feb. to May.  Once Romney secured the nomination (about June), the gap closed, until the mainstream media started more biased coverage & Obama’s attack machine focused on Romney, and “vulture capitalism,”  trying to define him in the public mind.  Romney’s counters occasionally closed the gap (e.g. early Aug. & Sept. – also due to the Ryan selection & convention when people started getting to know him better).  The Obama/media attacks began in earnest, widening the gap temporarily. 

Late Sept. showed the start of an upswing that I nearly commented on just before the debate, perhaps in part due to Bengazi-gate & Romney’s press conference.  [For any mathematicians, I also noted an arithmetic series of gaps between poll crossings – 7 mo., 4 mo, then by induction 1 mo.]  Then came the first debate, and the emperor was shown to have no clothes, and Romney was shown to be human, considerate, knowledgeable, competent, presidential & earnest – with 67 million viewers now a month before the election and finally paying attention.   It was unfiltered thru the media’s filters, and even the Dems had to acknowledge Romney’s strong performance, and Obama’s miserable one.   So just in time for the start of absentee (vote-by-mail) voting, Romney, who’d been running right behind Obama the entire year, put on a sprint to the finish, passing Obama for the first time. 

And just the other day (Oct. 10), the NYT was giving Romney a 25% chance of winning the electoral college.  (http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/oct-8-a-great-poll-for-romney-in-perspective/?partner=rss&emc=rss – it does allow you to look at various scenarios.  Interesting to compare the map there with the more recent one below a few days later.

You notice both candidates are focusing a lot on Ohio now – it’s historically been won by every Republican victor, and makes Romney’s path to 270 electoral votes much easier.  That path has in the past been much tougher than would be indicated by the national poll. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/09/us/politics/with-new-vigor-mitt-romney-intensifies-ohio-campaign.html?_r=0 ) 

What a difference a few days can make!  It really is starting to resemble the 1980 election of Reagan vs. Carter (Reagan was several points behind in the polls right up to the election).  Not only has Romney pulled even or ahead in the battle ground states, but some of those previously assumed as sure Obama states (based on the last election & polling) are now in play.

RCP Electoral College Map (red are Romney, blue Obama, gray battleground, with lighter shades meaning less sure)

Here is RCP’s estimate of “sure” vs. “toss-up” electoral votes:

Obama 201

Romney 181

Toss-up 156

Just last week they had Obama 270. – both Pacific NW & all New England & Pennsylvania were dark blue.  70 of those have in the last days gone to Romney or toss-up.  Just the last day or 2 (Oct. 10, 11) Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin moved from Obama to Romney.  Romney has pulled more clearly ahead in these formerly toss-up states:  Florida, Colorado, Missouri & North Carolina, though it’s still somewhat close. 

From Grassfire Nation:

“Even some of President Obama's biggest supporters are beginning to see the "writing on the wall." On Monday, liberal blogger Andrew Sullivan called the results of a new Pew Research Center poll, "Devastating, just devastating."

“The poll, released Monday, showed a 12-point swing in Romney's favor -- with the challenger now leading the incumbent 49% to 45%. Sullivan also took note of another Pew finding. The President's once-overwhelming support from women has evaporated, as Obama and Romney are now evenly divided among women voters at 47% each:

"Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever?"

And with running mate Paul Ryan waiting in the wing's for tomorrow night's vice-presidential debate against Joe Biden -- who's been "sequestered" for the past week to prepare for the face-off -- all signs indicate the political tide has definitely turned in Mitt Romney's favor.

Maybe time for one more refrain of my twist on “Pumped up Kicks” which I wrote & used in a post during the primaries:

All the other pols with the pumped up polls,

Better run, better run – outrun Team Romney.

All the other pols with the pumped up polls,

Better run, better run – faster than Mitt Romney.

An interesting article (at least for recent historical perspective – somewhat overcome by events) w. polling observations:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/01/8-takeaways-from-the-washington-post-abc-poll/?print=1

More on the Case Against Obama

This article (http://news.investors.com/100312-627990-presidents-case-for-re-election-rests-on-five-claims-all-phony.aspx?p=full) points out the errors in 5 basic Obama claims on which his premise for re-election rests: 

• Bush tax cuts and deregulation caused the recession.
• I stopped a second Great Depression.
• My policies are working.
• A slow recovery was inevitable.
• Nobody could have done any better.

Here’s a great video on “The top five reasons Barack Obama should not be re-elected as President,” good in general, but with an opening & closing that address hesitant evangelicals, in particular:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eILPwSOtXxI

Other News

Hewitt’s guest (Prodhoritz?) called Obama’s latest Big Bird ad desperate and a “jump-the-shark” moment, and even Democrat operatives were calling for him to pull it.  Yes, more concerned over Big Bird & NPR than unemployment, deficits & debt, Iranian nukes, terrorist attacks on our ambassador, etc.?

Ann Romney did well on Good Morning America (ABC) the other day.

I mentioned Romney's good news to a conservative guy in the locker room at the gym this week, and he said "Yes, an answer to prayers."  I wholeheartedly agreed. One of the trainers gives me deference wearing my Romney T-shirt -- "A Romney man gets the right-of-way."

Stacy Dash (the Black “Clueless” actress), who’d voted for Obama, endorsed Romney, and was attacked as a “traitor to her race.”  She got out of goose-step with the fascist, racist liberals.  Ann Coulter, who’d just published “Mugged,” a book about racial demagoguery, called her another of her heroes – along with Mia Love, who’s also received threats.  There’s another Black conservative who’s written a book titled something like “Runaway Slave,” about his escape from the Democrat plantation.

On Bengazi-gate, the Obama administration has thrown the State Dept. under the bus, saying they were the only ones who knew of requests for added security, and were responsible.  And they blamed the intelligence agencies for the information the administration was giving the public (anti-video mobs escalating to the attack).  The State Dept. passed the buck to the intelligence agencies, who said that they were right all along.  And those in charge of security at State said they’d passed on requests for more, but were told they were asking for the sun, moon & stars. 

In the VP debate, Biden said they (Carney clarified later he meant the administration) didn’t know of the requests, and accused Republicans of cutting funding to State, which likely impacted security.  It has since come out that their net budget has actually grown, and that it was simply a matter of priorities (e.g., as Ryan pointed out in the debate, our embassy in Paris has a full Marine detachment, but none in Bengazi). 

Additionally, there was sworn testimony before Congress just days before the VP debate (Biden was in deep sequestration) that requests had been made, and we know now that State had been in real-time communication w. the consulate just before & during the attack.  And knew there was no anti-video demonstration there.  But the administration continued to cite the videos for 2 weeks, including Obama citing it 6 times at the UN.  Again, a lot of politically expedient buck-passing.

Some have noted that in the wake of their being totally caught off-guard in Bengazi, due to poor intelligence (at least on the administration’s part – I understand Obama again skipped his intelligence briefing after the attack), how can Biden be so absolutely sure of exactly how far along the Iranian nuclear program is?  And isn’t there a lot more at stake there than the lives of 4 consulate personnel?   Someone else noted “the same administration that so quickly leaked secrets recently oozed slowly the truth about Bengazi,” and “People died, Obama lied.”   And another noted that after the East Africa embassy bombings by Al Qaida under Clinton, we were on the ground within 26 hours – this time it took 2 weeks.  They claimed they were having trouble getting visas.  A matter of leadership.  CNN was on-site within 24 hours, and retrieved the ambassador’s diary.  What kind of forensic evidence is likely valid after 2 weeks?

The VP Debate – Cantankery in Kentucky

I watched from the Huey campaign headquarters in Torrance.  I thought it was about a draw.  The only people I think Biden appealed to were his disheartened base who were looking for a rebound from the last debate.  But he appeared to over-compensate for Obama's lifelessness by his rudeness, condescension, inappropriate laughter/mockery and mannerisms, probably putting off everyone else, incl. undecideds/moderates.  He kept complaining about not getting equal time but got several more minutes than Ryan.  Someone counted 81 times Biden interrupted Ryan in the 90 minutes.  Ryan was pleasant, held his own in the face of a more experienced guy, though coming off a bit more wonkish (we need that for the economy), and made some good points.  Ryan could have torn apart some more of Biden's statements, but some of them were probably obviously wrong to observers, or have been disproved by subsequent fact-checking..

Someone passed on this relevant scripture:  "When a wise person debates with a fool, the fool rages and laughs, and there is no peace and quiet."

Proverbs 29:9

And so it went last evening.

Coulter said that Biden was leading the wolf pack with sneering, etc. [reminds me of Ann’s description of the mob mentality in her book “Demonic”].  Whereas Ryan was a polite young man.  She thought that Biden turned off many women, and helped close the gender gap for Romney. 

Obama “thought Joe Biden was terrific” – there you go. 

Even Tom Brokaw came down on Biden laughing about a matter as serious as possible nuclear war with Iran.

Before I heard Mark Levin say it, I was thinking the same thing – that Biden was acting like a 3^rd-world, tin-horn dictator like Chavez, Castro, etc.  Bluster & bullying, mockery, etc.

John Cornyn (NRSC chmn):  Last night, Paul Ryan showed a command of the facts and issues. Even Joe Biden’s decades of being a Washington insider couldn’t help him effectively spin the failures of the Obama-Reid economy. The only tactic he had was to interrupt and attack – in fact he interrupted over 80 times. This is more of the same. 

The sad thing is that this is going on all across America. Our Senate candidates are being barraged with false attack ads that are meant to distract from liberal failures.

Help our candidates fight these attacks, link: https://www.nrsc.org/donation/emergency-contribution

Liberal special interests are doing this in every state where a Republican has a shot to win. They know that a Republican majority is within reach, so they are pulling out all the nasty, untrue, rhetoric they know best. After all, this is their record:

• $16+ Trillion National Debt 
• $1.1 Trillion Government Deficit
• Over 1260 days Without a Budget
• Gutting Medicare of over $700 billion

We need to build momentum off of Paul Ryan’s debate performance. Joe Biden's attacks and interruptions showed why nothing has gotten done during the Obama administration, because they are unwilling to listen. Paul Ryan witnessed first-hand how frustrating Harry Reid and the Democrat Senate Majority have been. As a Congressman, he saw countless job-creating initiatives passed in the House of Representatives, only to be blocked by Harry Reid and Senate Democrats. A GOP Majority in the Senate is the only way to fix this problem.

Debate Notes (sketchy, less interruptions, laughing & sneering by Biden)

Martha Radditz moderated (posed questions), and all sat at a single table. 

Started with the 4 Americans killed in Libya – we now know no protesters but rather terrorists – was this an intelligence failure?

Biden – a tragedy, we will find those who did this.  Romney said we shouldn’t set a date in Afghanistan.

Ryan – We mourn them.  It took the president 2 weeks to acknowledge they were terrorists.  No status of forces agreement reached in Iraq under Biden/Obama.  We need to make sure we don’t project weakness abroad.  Bengazi-gate demonstrates the unraveling of the Obama foreign policy.

Q:  did Romney speak too early?

Ryan – No, never too early to stand for our principles

Biden – not a single thing Ryan said was accurate.  Obama’s done all he promised. [??!!]

Q: what were you [Biden] first told? 

Biden – the intelligence community first told there were protesters at Bengazi.

Q: Should the US apologize for burning Korans, etc.?

Ryan – We should not apologize for our values.  There were requests for security in Bengazi.  The ambassador in Paris has Marines assigned, but not Bengazi??!!

Iran.  Gates said a strike on Iran wouldn’t .... how effective?

Ryan – We can’t allow Iran to get nukes.  They now have enough material for 5 bombs (only 1 earlier in Obama’s administration) [Biden laughed at Ryan].  This administration delayed, watered down sanctions.  We need credibility on this issue.

Biden – Iran doesn’t have the ability to weaponize the material, and won’t for a while.

Ryan – Iran’s picked up the pace of production in face of inadequate sanctions.  They see Obama not meeting w. Israel but going instead on the View.

Biden – The Ayatollah sees a greatly hurting economy.

Ryan – The administration’s given 20 waivers to the sanctions.  Obama was silent on the Green revolution in Iran.

Q: Would a war in the Mideast or a nuclear Iran be worse?

Ryan – Iran w. nukes – already the greatest sponsor of terrorism – can you imagine them able to give terrorists nukes?

The Economy

Biden – We inherited a big problem.  We need to level the playing field so everyone has a chance.

Ryan – Where he lives the unemployment is 10% -- worse than when Obama took office (was 8%).  The wrong direction – not what a real recovery looks like.  He re-iterated Romney’s 5-point recovery plan.  He related a story showing Romney’s caring.  Regarding the 47% remark, he said as Biden knows, sometimes words don’t come out the way you mean.  Obama had a full Congress when he took office, and could have done what he wanted.  He promised unemployment wouldn’t go over 8% (it’s been over 8% for 43 months), and promised economic growth of 4% (it’s actually 1%).  Was it a good idea to spend on windmills in China, etc.?  Medicare & Social Security are going bankrupt.  Need to honor the promises to those in retirement by reforming the system for those under retirement age.  Obama raided Medicare to pay for Obamacare.  We need to let 55 million Americans choose their own care, not a panel of 15 unelected bureaucrats. 

Biden – Already argued about the “death panel” w. Palin [fact check – no, did not come up in the debate].  Under Obamacare, more benefits.  Romney/Ryan ideas are old and bad.

Ryan – They got caught with their hands in the cookie jar [raiding Medicare to pay for Obamacare]

Q: Why not raise the Social Security age?

Biden – no vouchers – couldn’t rely on them

Ryan – What politicians do when they have no record to run on is scare people about their opponent.

Taxes – who will/should pay more?

Biden—The middle class should pay less, the wealthy more.  Let the Bush tax cuts expire.  Republicans have been holding middle class cuts hostage to upper class cuts.

Ryan – Our promise is to grow the economy.  If we taxed [small?] businesses 100%, it still wouldn’t make a dent in the deficit.  Obama wants 44%.  Obama’s accusation of $5 trillion cut discredited by their own campaign manager. 

Biden – Not mathematically possible to cut deficit – not enough tax loopholes to close to balance tax cuts.

Ryan – 6 studies have shown it works – the economy grows [e.g., Laffer’s Law?].  Romney worked bipartisan in Massachusetts to balance budgets & get surpluses.  It’s worked in practice, also at least twice – for example, under JFK and....[interrupted]

Biden – “Oh, now you’re JFK?”  [tried to repeat the Benson attack on Quail, but fell flat]

Defense

Ryan – They proposed ~$400 billion cuts and $500 billion sequestration.  We should not cut the military.

Biden – we don’t cut it [??!!]

Afghanistan.

Ryan – we need to make sure the Taliban doesn’t return & have a safe base to attack again.

Biden – Afghans need to take responsibility to take their own defense

Ryan – Problems are growing abroad, and jobs are not growing here.

Q: What military reason was there for ending the surge when they did?  Political?

Biden – no, generals agreed.

Ryan – When we pulled them out before the fighting season was over, it put the others at risk.

Biden – Afghans filled in.

Syria

Biden – we’re working w. other nations.  What more would Romney do, go to war w. troops on the ground?

Ryan – We’re not proposing sending US troops.  We wouldn’t call Assad a reformer [Hillary did], or go along w. Russia in the UN.  The “reset” of relations w. Russia is not working.  Ineffective for Obama to go thru the UN.

Q:  We have 2 (Biden, Ryan) Catholic candidates – what are your views on abortion?

Ryan – One can’t separate public from private life – he’s informed by his values.  He feels life begins at conception.  They oppose abortion except for rape, incest & the life of the mother.  Obama infringes on freedom of religion.

Biden – Catholicism informs his social doctrine – caring for the poor, etc.  He won’t impose his religion on others.  There’s no conflict with the Catholic Church.

Ryan – Then why does the Church keep suing you? [and bishops came out after the debate criticizing Biden’s remarks]

Q:  Negative ads in the campaign – are you embarrassed by them? [I think I took a bathroom break or something]

Biden – a sacred obligation to equip and care for our troops.  An ad saying Romney  cares only for the rich by a PAC was regrettable.

Ryan – Hope and change turned to attack, blame and defame.  A string of broken promises:  health insurance premiums supposed to go down [but went up], taxes won’t go up on less than $250,000 income, would cut the deficit in half.  A debt crisis is coming; Obama has no credible plan to deal with it.  We’re getting speeches from this administration, not leadership.

Personal Character

Ryan – We need people who do what they say and address problems rather than blame and postpone.

Biden – I never say what I don’t mean [like the middle class has been buried these last 4 years?]

Ryan – This election is a big choice – what kind of country?  Obama had his chance – this is not a real recovery.  You deserve better – real reform for a real recovery for all the people.  Romney is uniquely qualified.  The alternative is a stagnant economy that grows dependency.  We won’t duck the issues.